{"id":1189,"date":"2024-01-17T00:48:10","date_gmt":"2024-01-16T23:48:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.cestypsychotroniky.cz\/?p=1189"},"modified":"2023-12-24T04:51:32","modified_gmt":"2023-12-24T03:51:32","slug":"nostradamus-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cestypsychotroniky.cz\/index.php\/2024\/01\/17\/nostradamus-4\/","title":{"rendered":"Nostradamus (4)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Proroctv\u00ed a prognostika<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kvalita informace<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ne, nebojte se, neza\u010dneme zase s entropi\u00ed. St\u00e1le se dr\u017e\u00edme Nostradama a ten, p\u0159i v\u0161\u00ed \u00fact\u011b, o n\u00ed bezpochyby nem\u011bl ani pon\u011bt\u00ed.<\/p>\n

V souvislosti s uv\u00e1\u017een\u00edm zejm\u00e9na v\u0161ech zkresluj\u00edc\u00edch faktor\u016f lingvistick\u00e9ho r\u00e1zu v jeho proroctv\u00edch i jejich interpretac\u00edch, Peter Lemesurier prav\u00ed [1]:<\/p>\n

\u201c… Za t\u00e9to situace je samoz\u0159ejm\u011b pro vyklada\u010de mo\u017en\u00e9 \u2013 ne-li neodolateln\u00e9 \u2013 vy\u010d\u00edst z nich (tj. z Nostradamov\u00fdch ver\u0161\u016f) t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 cokoliv.\u201c<\/p>\n

Dodejme \u2013 jak pr\u00e1v\u011b ukazuj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edklady v p\u0159edchoz\u00edch dvou d\u00edlech.<\/p>\n

A dodejme d\u00e1le, kdo se chce o budoucnosti opravdu n\u011bco seri\u00f3zn\u00edho dov\u011bd\u011bt, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nenav\u0161t\u00edv\u00ed proroka \u010di v\u011b\u0161tce, ale prognostika. Pravda, jeho slu\u017eba by byla asi podstatn\u011b dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed, zajist\u00e9 ov\u0161em i kvalitn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Seri\u00f3zn\u00ed progn\u00f3za m\u00e1 toti\u017e jasnou strukturu: Lze o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee v tom a tom obdob\u00ed se tam a tam stane to a to, z t\u011bch a t\u011bch d\u016fvod\u016f.<\/p>\n

Naproti tomu kvalita informace, kterou n\u00e1m nab\u00edzej\u00ed Nostradamova proroctv\u00ed, je zcela odli\u0161n\u00e1: N\u011bkdy, jednou, se n\u011bco stane, nev\u00edme p\u0159esn\u011b ani co, ani kdy a kde. No, a a\u017e dosp\u011bjeme k n\u00e1zoru, \u017ee u\u017e se tak stalo, tak si to pak n\u011bjak p\u0159ebereme.<\/p>\n

A, dodejme do t\u0159etice, budeme-li m\u00edt dostatek \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed a drzosti, tak na tom mo\u017en\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b zbohatneme.<\/p>\n

Emilovo pravidlo<\/strong><\/p>\n

Snad mi zde v t\u00e9to souvislosti bude odpu\u0161t\u011bna jedna zcela osobn\u00ed vzpom\u00ednka. M\u016fj n\u011bkdej\u0161\u00ed star\u0161\u00ed kolega, v\u00fdborn\u00fd fyzik\u00e1ln\u00ed chemik a ne\u00fanavn\u00fd vtip\u00e1lek, p\u0159ed n\u011bkolika lety zesnul\u00fd Dr. Emil K., k r\u016fzn\u00fdm r\u00e1doby v\u011bdeck\u00fdm probl\u00e9m\u016fm v\u017edy s oblibou \u0159\u00edk\u00e1val:<\/p>\n

\u201cAno, ov\u0161em, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b tomu bude tak a tak. Av\u0161ak uv\u00e1\u017e\u00edme-li v\u0161echny re\u00e1ln\u00e9 okolnosti, m\u016f\u017ee tomu p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b b\u00fdt i jakkoliv jinak.\u201c<\/p>\n

Co se t\u00fd\u010de n\u00e1s, nechali bychom tento v\u00fdrok tu\u010dn\u011b vytisknout do z\u00e1hlav\u00ed v\u0161ech minul\u00fdch, sou\u010dasn\u00fdch i budouc\u00edch interpretac\u00ed Nostradamov\u00fdch proroctv\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Prognostici<\/strong><\/p>\n

Zastavme se v\u0161ak je\u0161t\u011b kr\u00e1tce u sou\u010dasn\u00fdch profesion\u00e1ln\u00edch prognostik\u016f:<\/p>\n

Progn\u00f3zy se prov\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed pro \u00fa\u010dely vojensk\u00fdch a politick\u00fdch strategi\u00ed, demografick\u00fdch studi\u00ed a pozor, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm byznysu. Prognostik, pracuj\u00edc\u00ed s \u201cnostradamovskou\u201c kvalitou, by se sotva u\u017eivil. Ba je\u0161t\u011b h\u016f\u0159e, sv\u00fdm z\u00e1kazn\u00edk\u016fm by dokonce mohl zp\u016fsobit zna\u010dn\u00e9 \u0161kody.<\/p>\n

Ov\u0161em i sou\u010dasn\u00e1 prognostika m\u00e1 sv\u00e9 hv\u011bzdy. Snad nebude pro \u010dten\u00e1\u0159e velk\u00fdm zklam\u00e1n\u00edm, p\u0159izn\u00e1me-li, \u017ee t\u00edm nem\u00e1me na mysli ani Milo\u0161e Zemana, V\u00e1clava Klause \u010di podobn\u00e9 \u201chot boys\u201c. M\u00ed\u0159\u00edme toti\u017e pon\u011bkud jinam:<\/p>\n

Ke konci roku 2004 se ve sv\u011btov\u00e9m (a \u010desky monitorovan\u00e9m) popul\u00e1rn\u00edm tisku [3] objevila jm\u00e9na, jako Sherry Lansing, Allan Greenspan nebo Peter Schwartz.<\/p>\n

Intuice a psychologie<\/strong><\/p>\n

Vedle sv\u00e9ho nesporn\u00e9ho p\u016fvabu, by\u0165 je jinak ji\u017e d\u00e1mou v letech, pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 pan\u00ed Sherry i dal\u0161\u00edch osv\u011bd\u010den\u00fdch \u017eensk\u00fdch prost\u0159edk\u016f, jak\u00fdmi jsou intuice a znalost lidsk\u00e9 psychologie. Ale k \u010demu vlastn\u011b?<\/p>\n

T\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 neomyln\u011b dok\u00e1\u017ee vyc\u00edtit, zda film, jeho\u017e sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 je j\u00ed p\u0159edlo\u017een, bude m\u00edt u div\u00e1k\u016f \u00fasp\u011bch. A i ona je v t\u00e9to \u010dinnosti velmi \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e1. Jinak by asi tak\u00e9 sotva mohla b\u00fdt velmi dob\u0159e prosperuj\u00edc\u00ed filmovou producentkou (mj. vele\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fdch titul\u016f jako nap\u0159. Titanic \u010di Forrest Gump) a z\u00e1rove\u0148 prezidentkou filmov\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti Paramount Pictures [3].<\/p>\n

Zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 prost\u0159edky, tedy intuice a psychologie, bezpochyby pat\u0159ily i do z\u00e1kladn\u00edho arzen\u00e1lu legend\u00e1rn\u00edho Nostradama. Poh\u0159\u00edchu, kvalita prognostick\u00e9 informace, kter\u00e9 pomoc\u00ed nich oba doc\u00edlili, je zna\u010dn\u011b rozd\u00edln\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Fantazie i v\u011bdeck\u00e1 p\u0159esnost<\/strong><\/p>\n

B\u00fdval\u00fd jazzov\u00fd muzikant a sou\u010dasn\u00fd (alespo\u0148 je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed koncem roku 2004) \u0159editel feder\u00e1ln\u00edch rezerv USA, bezm\u00e1la osmdes\u00e1tilet\u00fd Allan Greenspan, je osobnost\u00ed m\u00e1lo pr\u016fhlednou, snad a\u017e tajemnou a bezpochyby, alespo\u0148 ve sv\u011btov\u00fdch hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch kruz\u00edch, i legend\u00e1rn\u00ed. Mimo jin\u00e9 pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 i fantazii a psychologii. To je ov\u0161em tak v\u0161e, co by snad mohl m\u00edt spole\u010dn\u00e9ho i s Nostradamem.<\/p>\n

Pomoc\u00ed zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdch prost\u0159edk\u016f dok\u00e1\u017ee velmi p\u0159esn\u011b odhadnout reakce obyvatelstva na m\u011bn\u00edc\u00ed se ekonomiku. K tomu ov\u0161em prov\u00e1d\u00ed i exaktn\u00ed anal\u00fdzy ekonomick\u00fdch dat. A v\u00fdsledek?<\/p>\n

V roce 2004 dok\u00e1zal p\u0159edv\u00eddat v\u00fdvoj americk\u00e9 ekonomiky s p\u0159esnost\u00ed na desetiny procent [3].<\/p>\n

Nostradamus by z\u00e1vid\u011bl …<\/strong><\/p>\n

… kdyby znal z\u0159ejm\u011b nejslavn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho futurologa sou\u010dasnosti, Petera Schwartze. O radu jej \u017e\u00e1daj\u00ed kapit\u00e1ni sv\u011btov\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu, politici, strat\u00e9gov\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Ji\u017e rok p\u0159ed \u00fatokem na newyorsk\u00e1 mrakodrapov\u00e1 dvoj\u010data v jedn\u00e9 sv\u00e9 studii p\u0159edv\u00eddal re\u00e1lnou mo\u017enost \u00fatoku dopravn\u00edch letadel ovl\u00e1dan\u00fdch teroristy na newyorsk\u00e9 mrakodrapy, v\u010detn\u011b doty\u010dn\u00e9ho WTC. P\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady pova\u017eovaly tenkr\u00e1t tuto p\u0159edstavu za absurdn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

V 70. letech 20. stol. p\u0159edv\u00eddal Schwartz ropnou krizi a zrod organizace OPEC. V 80. letech vypracoval podrobnou a velmi p\u0159esnou p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f rozpadu v\u00fdchodn\u00edho bloku, zahrnuj\u00edc\u00ed i n\u00e1stup tehdy je\u0161t\u011b bezv\u00fdznamn\u00e9ho apar\u00e1t\u010d\u00edka Michaila Gorba\u010dova k moci.<\/p>\n

Nov\u00e1 \u00e9ra?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nast\u00e1v\u00e1 tedy nov\u00e1 \u00e9ra podivuhodn\u00fdch m\u00e1g\u016f a prorok\u016f, pracuj\u00edc\u00edch ov\u0161em nikoliv ji\u017e s k\u0159i\u0161\u0165\u00e1lovou koul\u00ed (um\u00edst\u011bnou p\u0159\u00edp. na mosazn\u00e9 trojno\u017ece), ale s po\u010d\u00edta\u010di, soubory dat, statistick\u00fdmi metodami, pravda, t\u00e9\u017e s p\u0159im\u011b\u0159enou d\u00e1vkou fantazie, psychologie \u010di intuice? Asi ano.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011brem dv\u011b zpr\u00e1vy<\/strong><\/p>\n

A za\u010dn\u011bme tou \u0161patnou. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b kvalitn\u00edch prognostik\u016f nast\u00e1v\u00e1 pro lidstvo jeden z\u00e1sadn\u00ed probl\u00e9m: A\u017e jednou vypluj\u00ed z jejich tajemn\u00fdch kabinet\u016f elabor\u00e1ty, l\u00ed\u010d\u00edc\u00ed brzk\u00e9 v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 probl\u00e9my na\u0161\u00ed civilizace, \u010di dokonce jej\u00ed z\u00e1nik, m\u011bli bychom je br\u00e1t zatracen\u011b v\u00e1\u017en\u011b. Jestli u\u017e stejn\u011b nebude pozd\u011b.<\/p>\n

A jak\u00e1 je ta dobr\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va? Nev\u00edme jak vy, ale my st\u00e1le v\u00edce nab\u00fdv\u00e1me p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed, \u017ee star\u00e9ho dobr\u00e9ho Nostradama p\u0159ece jen zas tak v\u00e1\u017en\u011b br\u00e1t nemus\u00edme. Snad n\u00e1m to jeho skaln\u00ed vyznava\u010di odpust\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Literatura<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Lemesurier P.: Nostradamus p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch pades\u00e1t let. St\u0159edoevropsk\u00e9 nakladatelstv\u00ed, s.r.o., Ostrava, 1997, (origin\u00e1l \u2013 Nostradamus: The Next 50 Years, Piatkus Books, London, 1993). <\/em>
\nFiebag P., Gruber E., Holbe R.: Mystica. Weltbild, 2004. <\/em>
\nP\u0159edv\u00edd\u00e1n\u00ed budoucnosti. 100+1 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed zaj\u00edmavost, 24, 2004 (p\u0159evzato \u2013 Time, New York).<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a9 Tom\u00e1\u0161 & Martin Dosoudilovi<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Proroctv\u00ed a prognostika<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1145,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,10],"tags":[52,76],"class_list":["post-1189","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nazory","category-osobnosti","tag-historie","tag-osobnosti"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cestypsychotroniky.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1189","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cestypsychotroniky.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cestypsychotroniky.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cestypsychotroniky.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cestypsychotroniky.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1189"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.cestypsychotroniky.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1189\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1190,"href":"https:\/\/www.cestypsychotroniky.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1189\/revisions\/1190"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cestypsychotroniky.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1145"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cestypsychotroniky.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1189"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cestypsychotroniky.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1189"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cestypsychotroniky.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1189"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}